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Modern Autocracy

The Rise of Authoritarian Economies—and Why Only Some Can Succeed

Strongman governments are back. What becomes of their economies?

Autocracy has once again become a rising force. Today, two thirds of the world’s population live under regimes where electoral democracy is either absent or debased. Moreover, even many functioning democracies are now facing a significant share of their citizens who favor switching to authoritarian rule. But as states return to their old authoritarian ways, what happens to their still-modernized economies?

Simon Commander and Saul Estrin examine the scale of this change—and the unevenly distributed economic consequences that will soon accompany it. Modern Autocracy reveals how authoritarian economies generally perform worse than economies in democratic states, in part because many authoritarian states are centralized around a leader whose economic stewardship facilitates political favor and cronyism. In all, these features, combined with the likelihood of repression, sap economic vitality and stymie competition, innovation, and, ultimately, growth.

The exception, the authors reveal, is that autocracies can perform better when they’re built around an institutional framework rather than simply a leader. That is because they can pursue strategic goals, including innovation; even so, their autocratic foundations open up major vulnerabilities and tensions. Brimming with political relevance, Modern Autocracy is a defining taxonomy of economies and their natures in this century.


352 pages | 48 halftones, 6 line drawings, 8 tables | 6 x 9 | © 2027

Economics and Business: Economics--International and Comparative

Political Science: Diplomacy, Foreign Policy, and International Relations

Reviews

“At a time when authoritarianism is gaining ground and democratic governance increasingly questioned, Modern Autocracy could hardly be more relevant. Using rich data, analytical rigor, and writing with verve, Commander and Estrin explain to what extent the economic achievements of different types of authoritarian regimes can be replicated or sustained. This book makes an outstanding contribution to our understanding of the relationship between political power and economic dynamism. A must read for policymakers and scholars.”

Suma Chakrabarti | former president, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

“This forensic examination of the character of autocratic governments, their successes, failures, and vulnerabilities, could not be more timely. It will be required—although sobering—reading for all who hope that the current weaknesses of modern democracies can be overcome.”

Professor Dame Diane Coyle | University of Cambridge

“Authoritarian regimes are snapping at the heels of leading democracies. In this timely and insightful analysis, Commander and Estrin unpack the advantages and serious disadvantages of authoritarian rulers. Ultimately, democracy will prevail—but only if it can once again deliver on the promise of shared prosperity.”

Simon Johnson | coauthor of "Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity" and winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics

“Why do some autocracies achieve impressive growth while others devastate their economies? Commander and Estrin offer a compelling answer: autocracies differ fundamentally in how they organize their economies. Their analytical framework shows how political organization and regime time horizons shape choices about public goods, private rents, and repression. Combining comparative evidence with illuminating country studies, Modern Autocracy is essential reading for understanding the political economy of authoritarian rule.”

Chenggang Xu | author of "Institutional Genes: Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism"

Table of Contents

Lists of Figures and Tables

Part One: Modern Authoritarianism
1. Authoritarianism and Its Allure
2. The Economics of Authoritarianism
3. The Business of Authoritarianism
4. On Political Systems and Economic Performance
5. The Spoils: Authoritarianism and Inequality

Part Two: The Practice of Authoritarianism
6. Personalized Autocracy
7. Dynastic Autocracy
8. Institutional Autocracy: China
9. Institutional Autocracy: Iran
10. Electoral Autocracy: Hungary

Part Three: How Authoritarian Regimes Evolve
11. Transitions Between Political Systems and Their Durability

Part Four: Dealing with the Big Challenges
12. Do Authoritarian Regimes Innovate?
13. Authoritarian AI
14. Authoritarianism and Climate Change
15. Authoritarianism and Its Future

Acknowledgments
Notes
References
Index

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